My opinion about the 2027 election is consistent with my view about Nigeria. I believe that Nigeria has a lot of potential, human and material, to become a great country but has not done so largely because of the selfishness of its leaders. General Yakubu Gowon created a 12-State structure, six in the north and six in the south, a perfect balance for a fair federation that was in dire need of unity and stability. Some selfish generals bowing to the equally selfish desires of some politicians pushed for the creation of more states. There was nothing patriotic about their desire. The only reason for their desire was to collect more of the oil money that was pouring into the coffers of the Federal Government that states went to collect every month in Abuja. They did not think that this feeding-bottle approach to governance did not improve, was not likely to improve, the management of the states. Now, three quarters of the states depend largely on the monthly hand-out for sustenance. They make very little effort to generate internally generated revenue.
Talking about creation of states why did the generals who ran Nigeria’s affairs after General Gowon decide to distort the country’s configuration by giving more states to the north. Why didn’t they maintain the equality of states that Gowon wisely adopted so as to maintain the unity and stability of the country. At the 2014 national conference some northerners were pushing for a wider gap in the number of states between north and south based on their assumed higher population in the north. Have we ever conducted a truly accurate census in Nigeria since independence? Very doubtful. Even if the figures of population are accurate must that be the only consideration for state creation in a modern world? What of economic viability?
There are several groups of people who either knowingly or unknowingly, are hindering the progress of Nigeria. Those who are asking for the breaking up of Nigeria in the name of self-determination are making a major mistake. Isaac Adaka Boro tried it. It failed. Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu tried it. It failed. For me big is better. That is partly why China and India are doing fabulously well because they have a bigger, a much bigger playground to operate within. No one can toy with them. In any case, what has happened to the countries that chose fragmentation? USSR, Korea, Czechosvakia, Sudan. Have they fared better or they have remained in perpetual turmoil. So those who are pushing for the Republic of Biafra and Oduduwa Republic, can they put their facts on the table other than saying that they want self-determination. What we need in Nigeria is a truly united federation based on equity, fairness and justice. If we agree to live together in the country based on terms and conditions that are acceptable to all, then we are ready to be one country bound in unity and love.
Those who have hampered the unity, growth and prosperity of Nigeria belong to various classifications. Some of them are those who changed the 12-state structure of Nigeria in the name of bringing government nearer to the people. Those who tried to prevent Dr Goodluck Jonathan from acting as President of Nigeria when President Umaru Yar’Adua was sick belong to this category. Those who wanted a northerner to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari as he was completing his eight years in office as President were the haters of Nigeria as a country. It is interesting that they wanted to block a man, Bola Tinubu, who along with other southerners stitched together three parties and made a Buhari presidency possible. It is also interesting that at the last moment some patriotic northerners saw the injustice and fought against it.
Those northerners who insisted that they must contest for the presidency in 2023 may have claimed that there was nothing in the constitution that barred them from doing so. That is correct. They also want to contest in 2027 even though the South has not yet had its turn of eight years. I guess to solidify the rotation programme between north and south the rotation should actually be included in the constitution to avoid the greed and desperation of some politicians. There is too much of both greed and desperation in Nigeria politics, so much so that no one thinks of fairness or justice or equity. Northern leaders military and civilian, have held the reins of power in Nigeria longer than southern leaders, military and civilian since independence. But politics seems to be a profession that scoffs at fairness particularly because of the honey pot that is available to be licked by those who capture the diadem.
During the Obasanjo administration, the then Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Chief Bola Ige went to the Supreme Court and filed a case on the onshore/offshore dichotomy just to deprive the Niger Delta people of the benefits of the oil resources in their territory which had done a lot of damage to their means of livelihood and their flora and fauna. It was only when the militants threatened to stop the oil from flowing that President Olusegun Obasanjo opted for a political solution after the Supreme Court had ruled unfairly against the oil producing region.
The presidency is held by the south today. By the rotation regulation it should stay in the south for two terms of four years each. Some politicians from the north are threatening to run in 2027. No one can stop them because there is no law against their aspiration, only morality. But morality is hardly respected in politics especially in Nigerian politics.
However, in the APC, President Bola Tinubu has the opportunity of first refusal as the incumbent. If he wants to run it is unlikely that there will be other contestants from the same party. It is most unlikely that he will decline to run. He has put on the table some ambitions programmes that cannot be fully executed within four years. So he is likely to run based on his achievements within the first four years and what he hopes to accomplish, if elected, for another four years.
If the other opposition parties think that they can perform better than Tinubu they are also likely to field candidates either from the south or even from the north. But all the opposition parties have been weakened by their internal crises which is why they are talking of possible mergers or coalition since none of them has enough strength to withstand the fire power of the APC. Sadly for them, as is customary in Nigerian politics some of their members are decamping into the ruling party so as to get the benefits that accrue to a winning party. That is happening because there is no political party in Nigeria with any discernable political philosophy. There is basically no difference between them. All of them are groping in the dark, searching for political power after which they will try to find their way to the future. That is the tragedy of Nigerian politics, politics without philosophy or direction.
Should Tinubu run in 2027? Yes, because that is the only way of ensuring the flowering of the programmes and projects he is putting on the table in the first term. He has been asking for time so that his programme can mature. If he doesn’t run for the second term it means he does not believe in the maturation of his programmes by the second term. If another southerner contests the presidency and beats Tinubu it means that the person will either do one term to complete the term of the south or go ahead and do two terms thus giving the south three terms and therefore distorting the rotation scheme. If a northerner contests and beats Tinubu it means that the rotation has been distorted again after the Yar’Adua episode.
To solidify the unity and stability of Nigeria, the rotation principle between north and south should be entrenched in the Constitution. That will keep desperate politicians in line.
